Two years after the Ukraine invasion, drones, and U.S.-made chips increasingly flow to Russia from China via Central Asia, evincing the challenge of hindering supplies to Moscow’s war endeavors.
The Wall Street Journal has delved into this topic and here are the main takes from their report.
Central Asia serves as a crucial pipeline for Russia’s procurement of so-called dual-use goods, despite global attempts to curb them, facilitated by porous borders, opaque trade practices, and opportunistic middlemen. These goods, including items from major U.S. firms, are both civilian and military.
Natalie Simpson of C4ADS underscores the significance of the Central Asian route, funneling a range of Western goods into Russia, from microelectronics to luxury items, with potential military applications.
China, a primary exporter, sent $4.5 billion worth of dual-use goods directly to Russia in 2023, with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan serving as transit points. Drones, crucial in warfare, have notably surged in trade via Kazakhstan, despite China’s minimal prior exports to the nation.
Trade diversion through Central Asia has gained momentum as U.S. and European chip exports face tighter restrictions. In 2023, these countries facilitated millions of dollars in chip exports to Russia.
Efforts to curb gray-market trade persist, with U.S. and European officials urging Central Asian nations and China to tighten controls. However, China maintains compliance with export regulations.
Despite challenges, Russia continues substantial imports of dual-use goods, receiving an estimated $8.8 billion in 2023. The complexity of global supply chains allows goods, including those from U.S. companies, to reach Russia via convoluted routes.
