As the Saturday, March 15 deadline for renewing sanctions against Russian individuals and organizations looms, the European Union is navigating one of its most challenging diplomatic crossroads in years. With the U.S. halting military aid to Ukraine, President Trump advancing peace talks with Moscow, and EU member states deeply divided over energy security, Brussels faces a defining test of its unity and resolve.
“The United States is an ally in the transatlantic alliance,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen insisted on March 9, following Washington’s decision to cut off aid to Ukraine. However, her deliberate exclusion of America from her list of “like-minded” partners with whom Europe could enhance ties reveals her thinking on the current status of transatlantic cooperation.
Sanctions against individuals and organizations are extended every March and September, while economic sanctions are extended in January and July.
The EU’s foreign relations counselors are scheduled to meet March 17 to begin preliminary discussions on a potential 17th sanctions package against Russia before July. Early indications from the EU Parliament suggest discussions may focus on Russian LNG imports, third-country sanctions evasion, technology transfer controls, and financial restrictions.
Zelensky presses for new sanctions amid Hungarian resistance
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made his position clear during his address to the European Council on March 6: “I am grateful for the 16th package of EU sanctions, and we must continue this pressure. We need the 17th package of sanctions. Sanctions must remain in place until Russia ends the occupation.”
The Ukrainian leader has also expressed frustration with the pace of EU membership negotiations, noting that the “clusters” of negotiations on membership must begin. “Currently, the work on the clusters is effectively blocked without any rational reasons. We need common sense; we need to unblock the work on the clusters, and this can be done at the leadership level,” Zelensky is quoted as saying.
Meanwhile, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó has explicitly linked Hungary’s support for individual sanctions renewal to resolving an ongoing gas dispute with Ukraine, demanding “a response to a letter Hungary sent to the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, over his country’s gas spat with Ukraine before considering an extension of sanctions.”
According to one EU diplomat, Budapest has strategically “held its fire to save ammunition for the big battle next week” after maintaining a relatively moderate stance during recent EU summits on Ukraine.
Hungary and Slovakia are expected to refuse to support renewal unless certain oligarchs are not included in the list of more than 2,400 sanctioned individuals and organizations, RadioFreeEurope reports.
Energy security challenges deepen as gas storage levels fall
Europe’s energy security concerns have intensified as the continent exits winter with unusually depleted gas reserves. Current EU storage facilities stand at just 39.5% capacity, compared to 63% at the same time last year.
“This puts more pressure on Europe to import a lot of liquefied natural gas this summer,” explains Laura Page, an analyst at Kpler. “This increases competition with Asia, ultimately keeping prices high, which is difficult for industries.”
Despite EU efforts to reduce dependence on Russian energy since 2022, Russian gas still accounts for approximately 14% of European demand, with 9% arriving as LNG and 5% coming through the TurkStream pipeline.
In a concerning development for EU energy independence advocates, the European Commission has postponed its promised roadmap to eliminate reliance on Russian energy sources. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen had committed to producing concrete proposals within his first 100 days in office, but a senior EU official confirmed this timeline has been extended “in light of the latest geopolitical developments.”
More revealing still was a recent debate during an EU summit where leaders considered language that would have supported the “resumption” of Russian gas transit through Ukraine to Slovakia. While this specific wording was ultimately removed, the discussion indicates growing internal pressure to reconsider Europe’s stance toward Russian energy imports.
Industrial voices advocate return to Russian gas.
In Germany, influential industrial leaders have begun openly advocating for a return to Russian gas imports. Christof Gunther, who heads the Leuna chemical plant in former East Germany, recently said in an interview with Bloomberg that importing Russian gas is “the only way to revive entire sectors of the German industry,” adding that renewed imports would be a “logical consequence” of any peace agreement.
TVP world revealed an even more startling development: Matthias Warnig, described as “a former Stasi agent who ran Nord Stream until 2023,” is reportedly in talks with American investors to reactivate the pipeline connecting Russia to Germany.
ECB divided over Russian asset seizure
The debate over whether to move from freezing to outright seizure of Russian assets has intensified following America’s withdrawal of military aid to Ukraine. Approximately €200 billion in Russian central bank reserves are currently frozen in Belgium and being used as collateral for a €50 billion loan from the G7 to Ukraine, POLITICO reports.
The first significant crack in the European Central Bank’s united front against asset seizure appeared on March 8 when Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of the Bank of Latvia, endorsed the move. Kazāks told POLITICO that seizing these assets was a “viable option to help Ukraine in its fight for freedom and against aggression.”
This position represents a significant departure from ECB President Christine Lagarde’s cautious stance. Lagarde has consistently emphasized that “the international law basis on which any decision is made will matter as far as other investors are concerned.”
Citing sources familiar with the matter, POLITICO reports that central bank officials from other Baltic states privately support the seizure despite maintaining different public positions. This geographic pattern is noteworthy, with central banks from countries on Russia’s frontier prioritizing security considerations over financial ones.
Transatlantic relations under strain
Von der Leyen’s careful diplomatic language on March 9 highlighted the growing strain in EU-US relations. While insisting America remains an ally, she pointed to problems in global affairs where “sovereignty but also ironclad commitments are called into question,” noting that “everything” had become “transactional.”
The Commission President emphasized the EU’s €800 billion investment in its defense industry, noting that the share of military equipment sourced from Europe would need to increase. This reflects growing recognition that European countries that have spent billions on American weaponry now face questions about the reliability of these systems.
Concerns extend beyond conventional weapons, with Poland’s foreign minister suggesting Warsaw might seek alternatives to Elon Musk’s Starlink “if SpaceX proves to be an unreliable provider.”
Critical decisions ahead
The coming weeks will see several critical decision points that will shape Europe’s approach to Russia and Ukraine. Diplomats are watching the buildup to the March 15 vote to see whether Hungary will force concessions or potentially derail the process entirely.
The March 17 meeting of foreign relations counselors will provide the first indications of member states’ priorities for a potential 17th sanctions package.
As Europe confronts these challenges, several key priorities have emerged in Brussels discussions: leveraging EU-Russia trade relationships, accelerating energy diversification, developing independent defense capabilities, enhancing sanctions monitoring systems, and improving the overall sanctions framework.
With the United States potentially stepping back from its leadership role in the sanctions regime, the EU faces a fundamental test of its ability to maintain a coherent, unified approach to Russia while balancing security imperatives with economic realities. The decisions made in the coming weeks will reveal much about Europe’s capacity to function as an independent geopolitical actor in an increasingly complex international environment.
