According to an analysis by Rystad Energy, an independent energy research and business intelligence company headquartered in Oslo, Norway, the UAE’s state-owned oil company, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has plans to ramp up its oil production by up to 42% by the year 2030.
The data shows that ADNOC is expanding rapidly and over the next four years, the company plans to increase its production capacity by 7%, while declaring its commitment to making its operations more climate-friendly through renewable energy ventures.
However, critics have pointed out that the significant increase in ADNOC’s projected production is inconsistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement and global efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Rystad’s analysis indicated that ADNOC’s boosting production over this decade could raise output from just over a billion barrels in 2023 to nearly 1.5 billion barrels by 2030. Adnoc is expected to continue expanding through the 2030s, with production expected to drop by the 2040s.
By 2050, ADNOC is projected to produce nearly 850 million barrels annually, a decrease from the billion barrels it currently produces. This is still considered a substantial output that will contribute significantly to emissions.
By 2050, ADNOC’s expanded production could result in over 14 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions, constituting over 6% of Earth’s entire budget to keep temperatures below the 1.5 Celsius threshold. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), has stated that ADNOC’s expansion plans are inconsistent to keep global temperatures from reaching dangerous thresholds.
Adnoc criticized the analysis for not differentiating between production capacity and actual production, emphasizing that the company is focused on capacity.
The company maintains that oil and gas will remain essential to meeting future energy demand while highlighting its commitment to reducing carbon intensity in tandem with investments in decarbonization initiatives, such as hydrogen and geothermal.
Global Witness, a campaign group, criticized Adnoc’s plans for running counter to the scientific consensus and urged the company to reconsider its future oil production strategies.
